TUESDAY, October 16, 2007 — Based on traditional criteria, it's unlikely that upscale retail chains will be flooding into Sanford any time soon. But if local leaders continue to build a favorable social climate, that day may come earlier than some might believe.

That was the assessment of noted real estate developer Jay Lucas, who tackled the question of retail development on Friday afternoon at the Committee of 100's quarterly luncheon.

With about 120 guests gathered to hear his perspective, the president of the Office and Investment Division of Harry B. Lucas Companies in Carrollton, Texas, explained how chains like Target, Outback Steakhouse and Harris Teeter decide where to place new stores. It's a cold, hard calculation based on location, timing and demographics, he said, with a special emphasis on local lifestyles.

One misconception, said Lucas, is that retail leaders look only at current data.

With more information widely available than ever before, it's become easy for retail developers to learn intricate details about residents in any community without ever setting foot on the ground. Market researchers have even segmented consumers into well-defined groups based on the way people live, what they believe and how they spend money.

But chains are always looking ahead. Because the population must be large enough to support new locations for years after they're built, many rely on projections five years down the road, Some for twice that long. "It's not about what you have today," Lucas told the group. "It's about what's going to be here tomorrow."

Flipping through dozens of slides, many providing a detailed analysis of Lee County's assets and liabilities, Lucas finally came to his verdict. Lee doesn't stack up all that well compared to alternative locations on many of the essential demographic numbers, he said, and that makes it unlikely that the coveted retail chains will be sailing into Sanford right away.

On the other hand, he noted, there's a lot local officials can do to make the community attractive to upscale stores and restaurants. To succeed, he said, it's important to accentuate the positive and build a visible community spirit by working together.

That means a lot of things — among them, finding common values, fostering a friendly business climate, having local groups communicate and cooperate on economic development projects, and raising the standard of life for everyone.

So, when will Target, Outback and Harris Teeter come here?

"The answer is a line I've borrowed from the movie, 'Field of Dreams,'" he told an attentive crowd. "'If you build it, they will come. They will most certainly come.'"

Some Quick Notes from Jay Lucas

On what businesses want. Lucas says all businesses are looking for the same things when they evaluate new locations — a good quality of life, a strong labor pool, accessible transportation, quality health care, good schools, low crime rates and a clear community spirit.

On what seals the deal for retail chains. Upscale retail, Lucas says, locates at sites where they enjoy easy access, high visibility, minimal competition, low operating costs and enough people with money to spend and needs to fulfill.

For a copy of Lucas' presentation (859K pdf), click here.